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A study by Stanford University economists found the tax will cost California $25 billion as the tax drives companies and wealthy residents out-of-state.
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Vetted · Oct 3, 2026
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9f0eb1e3dc2fe8b2a78224a9d6e429b8a36fb065e24dc42f7b2a3e1e60337332
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Technical details
- Service key id:
service:a3f979541aee7826- Owner key id:
SHA256:h82SrxLU1wYr+jpy4Vl9/9iQlAO+HQX1umVBdhy/Ss0- Owner keys file in the public log:
integrity/keys/owner.allowed_signers
Log entry
Entry 9, published Oct 3, 2026. Each entry includes the fingerprint of the one before it, so no earlier entry can change unnoticed.
Open entry 9 in the public repositoryMerkle proof
These hashes lead from this record's fingerprint to the entry's root: 510fa346bc644ee6942848357c92ed2869f227a8977c9bcc638184f371d8cee4
- 9f0aedba6122a95039983a9cfaecad8e8f7e80c404ef8fb058c2310567de2b15
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Outside witnesses
Versions
- Entry 9 · Oct 3, 2026 · current9f0eb1e3dc2fe8b2a78224a9d6e429b8a36fb065e24dc42f7b2a3e1e60337332
- Entry 2 · Oct 3, 2026 · replaced on Oct 3, 2026db3559c81e2b28eb15b499f554b7bb81b63a5e74e4b28eca8f43337a2d8969e2
Judgments behind this record
Verdict on the claim
Call: Missing context
The study exists: the Hoover Institution at Stanford (Rauh, Jaros, Kearney, and others) estimated that the one-time tax would collect about $40 billion and, once lost future income tax revenue from billionaires who leave is counted, leave the state about $25 billion worse off, with a negative net present value under most scenarios. The $25 billion is a projection from the study's assumptions, including that departures already announced removed a large share of the tax base, not a certain result. The Analyst reaches a different estimate: tens of billions of dollars collected and a possible ongoing income tax loss of less than $1 billion a year, with the outcome very hard to predict.
Made by a sourcer · checked by an independent checker · approved with the owner's key
Technical details
- Recorded call:
missing-context- Author id:
sourcer:ca-2026-measures- Checker id:
checker-judgments-ca-2026- Owner key id:
SHA256:h82SrxLU1wYr+jpy4Vl9/9iQlAO+HQX1umVBdhy/Ss0
Vetted · Oct 3, 2026
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